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Private Equity could generate significant returns if the Argos Transformation Plan is successfully delivered in private ownership.
But this is based in part at least on the starting point of very low profitability, which both highlights the risks involved for PE and limits the leverage a private vehicle could support initially and hence the exit price for HOME shareholders.
Any consideration of the exit value of Argos must also be based on assuming that the Argos business model — which we believe has become more dependent on the contribution of consumer finance — is sustainable in private ownership see below.
As part of this exercise we have also had a much closer look at the composition of profits as stated by HOME.
We believe that the Financial Services HFS business achieves far greater profits than stated and that these are re-allocated to Argos mainly and Homebase.
We have estimated that over half of current year Argos EBIT is in fact re-allocated HFS profits, suggesting that the erosion of product based profitability has been greater than investors would generally believe.
We have received no co-operation from HOME in our analysis which incorporates a number of assumptions which may limit the accuracy of our conclusions.
The implication here is that Argos needs the support of a consumer finance structure to sustain its operations. While HOME management may be motivated to offer for Argos, we believe that the valuations of Argos and HFS have to be considered together by investors rather than assuming a separate valuation for HFS based on its debtor book, because the returns implicit in a separate valuation of HFS would effectively be double-counted as its profits are mainly shown currently within the Argos EBIT.
We assume that Sainsbury has probably done the same work we have managed in a couple of days over the last six months. So we would expect that it does not want to double-count assets either.
This said the logic of its approach eludes us so its valuation is likely to as well. BE Canaccord also advising caution into the deadline.
PM Hang on PM We assume that Sainsbury has probably done the same work we have managed in a couple of days over the last six months.
PM That's a bit cheeky no? BE With the clock ticking down to the 5pm deadline on 2 February or potentially later if agreed by the Takeover Panel , by when J Sainsbury has to decide whether or not to make an increased bid for Home Retail, the answer should soon become clearer as to whether Argos is to continue with its Digital Transformation plan as an independent operator or potentially as a subsidiary of J Sainsbury.
Home Retail is currently just over three years through its five-year plan, so it is a case of unfinished business at this stage.
This will, of course, be dependent on a number of factors. First and foremost is whether Sainsbury does return with an enhanced bid.
Assuming it does, we must see at what level this is pitched and whether shareholders are willing to accept this.
In turn, this may depend on the mix of cash and paper offered. Given Sainsbury's own travails and challenges in its core grocery market, we would assume that the higher the mix of cash over paper, the higher the chances of success in securing Home Retail's shareholders' agreement.
BE The market is not privy to the level at which Sainsbury's rebuffed offer last November was pitched although press speculation centres at around p.
These will all play a part in Sainsbury's thinking for what it views as both a "strategically compelling transaction" but also "not a must do deal".
As the potential bidder, it is only Sainsbury's and its shareholders' view on the strategic compulsion of the transaction that matters.
We do not have adequate insight into Sainsbury's strategy to comment in an informed manner, but it is clear from some of its published materials that the company and its advisors are serious in their deliberations and justifications on this matter.
This has certainly changed our initial scepticism on the probability of a higher, follow-up approach. BE As long-term observers of Home Retail, we remain less convinced of the strategic logic and rationale of such a deal.
However, just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, value is in the eye of the bidder. Only a "strategically compelling transaction" could justify that in our view.
Ascribing a two in three chance to a bid at the current share price and a one in three chance of no further - or failed - bids, in which case fundamentals would re-apply, this gives our new target price of p.
We therefore retain our SELL recommendation. BE All of which plays into the bear stuff above rather neatly.
BE There's a quite startling disconnect between what the buyside says HOME is worth -- remember the flush of "we won't sell for less than p!
BE One can be cynical about both sides, of course. Though only the former is talking its book. The rest adds value to the remaining group by strengthening the balance sheet and reducing the pension deficit.
Homebase sale also reducing the lease liability. The offer then depends on the valuation of the Argos trading business plus cash net of it's pension liabilities.
HOME trading in a poor year at c. Homebase sale likley to reduce profit by c. A p offer from SBRY would be paying a 10x net bad-year multiple or 5x good-year multiple.
A p offer would be a 15x net bad-year multiple or 7. So even a p offer would not be that crazy given that SBRY trade on a fwd multiple of 11, HOME consistently generates higher OCF than earnings, the deal could be debt funded to reduce tax and the potential synergies that have been detailed.
Execution risk has reduced with the sale of homebase. I'm not expecting taht SBRY will go as high as p not without a counterbid anyway but on balance of probablities it would seem worth them table a higher offer than the current share price.
What do we know as facts We know Argos have piloted some stores in Sainsbury's We know some members of Home retail and Sainsbury's boards have worked for each other companies.
We know Home retail share price is too low and in danger of a take over We know there are take over rumours about Home and Homebase.
Here is a theory Suppose the pilot stores have proven to be successful for both sainsbury's and Argos. All of a sudden you have a strategic business partner who can bring you growth for little cost.
Now if Amazon took over Home and we know Amazon are now playing in the food market would they want Argos stores in Sainsbury's? So how do you make your strategic growth 'partner' less attractive to take over I'll let you join the dots.
Nomura have set a target price of GBX on its stock. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 2.
The 52 week high for the share price is currently at There are currently ,, shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 3,, Argos is a digital retailer, which sells products through its stores, Website and mobile applications.
Which begs the question what are Homebase known for? If you can't answer that question eg known for product x or known for price or value or quality then you have just discovered what the problem is with Homebase, it's not known for anything and is jack of all trades and master of none.
If you look at AO Appliances on line they are known for price and speedy delivery. John Lewis for quality of service, Ikea for simple design at great prices.
Homebase has lost it's way and unless they can come up with a plan will continues to be lost. Lets hope the new CEO has what it takes.
As for Argos it know's what it want to be and has a plan which it is executing, there are speed bumps along the way but assuming it does not get derailed in two years time we'll look at today's share price as a great buying opportunity.
Investment banking sources suggested this buffer would make the company appealing to bidders. Argos and Homebase are saddled with big property estates and have been hit hard by the shift to online shopping.
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